September 2025 NICS Numbers | OHUB News

September has handed, bringing one other month of NSSF-adjusted NICS information. As days get shorter and autumn begins, firearm gross sales sometimes enhance as temperatures drop. July was the slowest month since 2019, with NSSF-adjusted NICS totals dropping under 1 million. Though August noticed the quantity rise again above the 1 million mark, it nonetheless represented a decline of just about 10% from the Similar Month in 2024. Will September be extra of the identical? Let’s take a better look.

This has been an ongoing information collection analyzing the month-to-month NICS numbers to gauge the trade’s temperature. To this point, I’ve mentioned each month since April, with every version exhibiting a gentle decline in comparison with the identical month within the earlier 12 months. All of which got here to a head in July, however will the remainder of the 12 months rebound?

Reminders

First, the NICS examine solely confirms {that a} background examine is happening, not the variety of weapons listed on a 4473. It doesn’t mirror a 1:1 ratio of firearms bought to background checks accomplished.

Furthermore, this determine doesn’t embody personal occasion transfers, that are authorized in lots of states. Moreover, twenty-four states have different permits that permit firearm purchases with out requiring further background checks. As an illustration, an up to date CCW license is accepted as a substitute for a NICS examine within the state of Ohio. Maintain these factors in thoughts when analyzing the numbers.

How does the Quantity Bode?

In September 2025, the NICS examine rely for firearms remained above 1 million at 1,179,424. Not like August, that quantity reveals a 2% enhance in comparison with 2024. Moreover, the unadjusted determine for September 2025 is 1,858,763, which is a ten% lower from September 2024. Why the distinction? My guess is that that is associated to the growing variety of states which have handed permitless or constitutional carry legal guidelines. In line with NSSF, “The adjusted NICS information have been derived by subtracting out NICS function code allow checks and allow rechecks utilized by states for CCW allow software checks in addition to checks on energetic CCW allow databases.” This is smart if fewer persons are actively making use of or renewing a CCW license.

Mark Olivia, managing director of public affairs for NSSF, acknowledged:

“September’s adjusted NICS determine of over 1.1 million background checks for the sale of a firearm is encouraging and displays a gentle curiosity by law-abiding Individuals to train their Second Modification rights. September can also be the start of many looking seasons throughout the nation, and the firearm trade sometimes sees background checks for retail firearm gross sales enhance throughout these months, as hunters go afield and need to take with them the newest in firearms to reap clear protein for his or her tables. It’s a matter of delight to these in our trade that Individuals from all walks of life belief their security and their treasured pastimes to the merchandise our trade gives.”

Zooming Out

As we start the vacation season, producers and retailers will intention to be aggressive with their gross sales and advertising, every making an attempt to filter stock earlier than the brand new 12 months’s audits start. We’re in a purchaser’s market; reap the benefits of the offers when you can.

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